Jayco boss: Caravan market set to "take a real dive"

Batten down the hatches!

After a 'golden period' of record caravan sales in Australia during the COVID-affected years of 2022-24, Jayco Australia founder Gerry Ryan is predicting some sombre months ahead for caravan retailers, including a return to pre-COVID annual production figures.

Australian RV production reached a peak of 28,301 units in 2022 and 31,289 units in 2023 which together with annual RV imports growing to around 20,000 or more, saw a combined yearly total of close to 50,000 RVs hitting the ground during the COVID 'boom'.

However Ryan, who has seen more than his fair share of economic ups and downs over the past 50 years since starting Jayco, reckons that the annual figure will drop substantially in 2025 to as low as 25,000, of which around a third will come from Jayco's Dandenong mega-factory.

"(I believe) the market is going to take a real dive, not just caravans, it's boats and cars... we're gonna feel some heat, with interest rates (up) and people's confidence (down)," Ryan said.

"During COVID everyone grabbed a caravan, families, grey nomads... One because they couldn't travel overseas, and Victorians couldn't travel interstate... We went from around 30,000 to 45,000 produced, we don't know how many were sold... (Chinese-built RVs now account for) around 50 per cent of the market."

Ryan said that while retirees are still splashing out on new RVs, there are fewer families and adventurous couples in the market as cost-of-living pressures and higher interest rates cut into disposable income.

Not helping matters is the thousands of unsold new caravans currently sitting in dealer yards, with the Jayco factory recently taking the unprecedented move of holding a two-day 'In-House Factory Expo' that included a sneak-peek of new 50th Anniversary models, factory tours and "huge deals" on MY24 dealer stock.

"I see us coming back to 25,000 this year, perhaps as high as 30,000, but in the meantime there are 15,000 caravans sitting around in dealer yards," Ryan warned.

According to the Caravan Industry Association of Australia, there are 190 local manufacturers of recreational vehicles, and Ryan predicts some of these may struggle to survive, although he believes Jayco with its market dominance is best positioned to 'weather the storm'.

"The cost of doing business in Victoria is getting more and more expensive, (when I'm at the factory) I still check the waste bins out, and some employees joke 'Hey Gerry, here's a couple of dollars for some lunch money!" (I tell them) if we can be more efficient and turn the lights off, I can give you job security and reward you for your efforts..."

The Jayco factory currently employs just under 1000 people (down from around 1200 a couple of years ago), and despite being the biggest and best equipped RV factory down under, it's not resting on its laurels when it comes to staying ahead of the pack, including fast-growing importers.

This was highlighted during a recent tour of the Jayco factory, with an upgraded auto-style Silverline assembly line, and a new in-house automated production line for PET (Polyethylene Terephthalate) composite caravan floors, among a number of production-process improvements being rolled out.

"We're investing in capital equipment and if you come back here in six to nine months you'll see changes in the factory," Ryan said.

We also spied stylish new fabricated chassis add-ons ready to be installed on MY25 All Terrain caravan models, which are made at a nearby metal fabricating business also owned by Ryan, and a lone LDV delivery van that could form the base of a new entry-level Jayco campervan.

Like a growing number of local manufacturers Jayco is also working hard on its quality control checks, with most Jayco vans now getting an internal positive-pressure test as well as an external water-spray test, to check for any potential leaks before leaving the factory.

We were also told that some Jayco dealers now also have their own portable 'positive pressure' machine, so they can make final checks of any 'unwanted' movement during transit, before handing over to the customer.

While Jayco has had plenty of hits and misses over the years, Ryan said the secret to Jayco's long-term success has been surrounding himself with loyal staff that share his passion for the business, and always listening and responding to customers.

"People will always go camping and that's going to be the case for the next 50 years," he said. "Whether it's going to be a motorhome or a hybrid, there will always be demand...You've got to keep improving and listening to your customers," he said.

Ryan said his favourite Jayco model of all is the one he built first; a Jayco JayDove camper that he recalls sold for just $2395 back in the mid-1970s.

As part of Jayco's 50th anniversary celebrations, the company is restoring an original JayDove which will be presented at the 2025 Jayco dealer conference in a few weeks' time. Now in his mid-70s, Ryan joked he's going to leave the tougher jobs like manual winding of the roof to one of his grand-children.

Meanwhile, Australia's 'caravan king' shows few signs of slowing down, despite the toil of countless business and sporting interests, and even has plans to hit the road soon and become a grey nomad, at least for a limited period, in a new custom-built Jayco motorhome...